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 china- clueless over taiwan

recently, china has reduced the number of tourists to taiwan. the mainland has also established ties with panama, sao tome, and the gambia. china believes that if it gives pressure to taiwan, then taiwan will cooperate with the mainland, but this is not true. first and foremost, cai was groomed, and brought in by the west, therefore it would make sense that taiwan answers to the u.s, not taiwanese people, and certainly not xi. therefore, it wont matter how bad ordinary taiwanese had it, taiwanese leaders will stay on the u.s path of destabilization. the only way for tw to cooperate with the mainland is if the u.s tells tw to. there will be no other way.

if we look at what hapened in the ukraine, we saw that the pro western ukrainians were, and are willing to follow the u.s path, despite all sorts of pressure. indeed, the ukrainians face much bigger pressures, like armed conflict, and huge economic losses. however, this has not weakened the pro western/anti russian positions held in the ukraine. in comparison, we can say that ukraine was a much better place before the coup. at the same time, the ukraine is in a much worse place than tw is in, yet still it is comited to the u.s path, so why would tw abandon the u.s path while being in a better position? things would have to get a lot worse, before tw would capitulate to the mainland, and even with active armed conflict, and widespread poverty, tw is unlikely to compromise.

and an armed conflict is unlikely in tw, because given china's cowardly record in the past 40yrs, the revisionists in beijing are unlikely to even go as far as the russians were. mind you, the only way the russians were able to gain a foothold in donbas is because there were existing pro russian forces, and these pro russians were mostly a legacy of the soviet era. however, ive never heard of pro chinese forces in tw.

most of the leaders in the ukraine received a "comunist" education. they are familiar with inperialism, and revolution. most ukrainians lived through comunism, yet despite this background, the ukraine is on a counterevolutionary, and pro inperialist path. we must also remember that the ukraine was pro russian to begin with, and thats why Yanukovych was overthrown. yet even with such a good foundation, the ukraine today remains strictly anti russian anti russian/pro western.

on the other hand, china is not only unfamiliar with backing pro chinese fighters in the way that russians are familiar with backing pro russian fighters, but all the able military geniuses in china are either dead, or in prison. today's china is led entirely by compradores who are themselves pro western.

comparing tw to ukraine, tw never received comunist education. theyve always been pro inperialist. they have no idea what comunism, or revolution is. therefore, it is safe to assume that tw will go even beyond the ukraine to please their inperialist masters, and the people are very unlikely to challenge the pro inperialist situation even when faced with armed conflict, and poverty.

we can also look at the ussr. 70% of the soviet people wanted to stay in the soviet union, however, the ussr's fate lied in the hands of a small group of pro western leaders, and it was them who decided whether the ussr would stay in one piece or not.

looking closer to home, the majority of chinese people prefered comunism, however, it was deng and a handful of capitalists who took china into capitalism against the will of the majority.

in some cases, the people can decide the destiny of a country, but in most cases, a country's fate rests in the hands of a few.

people dont decide what happens, oligarks do.

certainly, we can say that some bourgeoisie in tw do want to cooperate with the mainland, but the guns arent in their hands, just as the guns werent in the gang of 4's hands, and its the guns, and intel that decide the fate of a country, or province. tw has been in the hands of the west for nearly 70yrs. that's a long time to buid up a network of spooks, and pro western sympathizers. it's unlikely to be disbanded by this small group of bourgeoisie who seek truce with the mainland.

but perhaps the main reason why china is failing in tw is due to china's own weakness. we saw from the 60s that china was able to successfully back many resistance movements throughout the world, even with geographic and language barriers. today's chinese weakness shows us that even without the geographic and language barriers, china has failed to make a difference in tw, and we can ony blame this on revisionism.

as per usual, the revisionists in china are incompetent and unable to handle the situation. they might even be concsiously going along with the american status quo, but 50 yrs later, they still refuse to realize their mistakes regarding revolution, just as president cai refuses to accept the 92 consensus. once again, china has proven itself to be getting weaker. the taiwan problem arises out of chinese weakness. if the chinese were to continue the revolution, not only would tw be liberated, it's very possible that okinawa, and guam would also be. by capitulating, china has lost all its bargaining chips, and as we can see, china can establish diplomatic ties with panama, and reduce tourists, but that still wont be nearly as effective as backing guerilas in singapore.

the reason why lin biao didnt want to go along with zhou's capitulation scheme is precisely because of what we witnessed in the past 50yrs.

you either got it or you dont. and china dont.
  
  
  

 
 
顶端 Posted: 2017-07-01 16:24 | [楼 主]
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